tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27601830.post5810060720810064982..comments2023-07-08T07:33:24.470-07:00Comments on Hope for Pandora: Teetotaling Vindicatedthomas robeyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10507272466209300062noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27601830.post-89360477773761332192007-10-23T05:50:00.000-07:002007-10-23T05:50:00.000-07:00fair enough...but it's hard to balance an entire a...fair enough...<BR/><BR/>but it's hard to balance an entire article against a complex disclaimer. am i allowed to bring up off-topic ideas on my own blog? ; )thomas robeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10507272466209300062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27601830.post-58244502317785218652007-10-22T22:22:00.000-07:002007-10-22T22:22:00.000-07:00"shtick!" What a harsh PS!Honestly, I didn't write..."shtick!" What a harsh PS!<BR/><BR/>Honestly, I didn't write the question. <BR/><BR/>And I think my article is defensible. Hell, this line alone is key: "The changes were modest, the data sets tiny, and the data subject to the variation of the climate. (In other words, do I believe the change? Maybe. Maybe not.)" It wasn't exactly unequivocating. <BR/><BR/>Still, this is off-topic.golobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15221571594583989737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27601830.post-89160556821154052302007-10-22T16:44:00.000-07:002007-10-22T16:44:00.000-07:00Yes, but what of this basic error in the controlli...Yes, but what of this basic error in the controlling for confounding variables (from the article):<BR/><BR/>The same data show that about 30,000 fatal heart attacks were prevented by moderate alcohol consumption, defined as fewer than two drinks a day for men and less than one drink a day for women. But Dr. Robert Brewer, head of the CDC alcohol team, said the evidence for alcohol preventing heart attacks is less reliable.<BR/><BR/>"We need to be cautious about interpreting the studies that suggest a benefit," Brewer said. "People who drink moderately are different from people who don't drink — they exercise more, they have better medical insurance, their body-mass index is lower." <BR/><BR/>In other words, they might have had fewer heart attacks because of factors other than alcohol intake. <BR/><BR/>I think, however that it was some other papers that prompted the lay press article, but I am too lazy/busy to find them right now.<BR/><BR/>PS: I am disappointed that you decided to run the "closing I-5 changed Seattle's temperature" shtick over at Dear Science. You definitely made that question up.thomas robeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10507272466209300062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27601830.post-5159479421553399122007-10-22T12:01:00.000-07:002007-10-22T12:01:00.000-07:00So far as I can guess, it was this circ research r...So far as I can guess, it was this <A HREF="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=17846344&ordinalpos=7&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum" REL="nofollow">circ research review</A> that prompted the news article.<BR/><BR/>The conflating of absolute and relative risk makes this article silly. Yes, cancer risk might go up. The absolute risk of even common cancers (like colon and breast carcinoma) are grossly outweighed by the absolute risk from cardiovascular disease. Hence: the overall mortality data says a drink or so a day is a net positive. Check out figure 2 in the review--a 'U' shaped delight.golobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15221571594583989737noreply@blogger.com